Think Tank: CrisisForecasting

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From Title Clicks Comments Date
JuergenScheffran Show AbstractUnderstanding Cascades and Tipping Points in Human-Environment Interaction 659 0 05-05-2010 23:41:13
Environmental changes affect human life and the stability of societies. The interactions between climate change, natural resources, human needs and societal stability are highly complex and require data-driven integrated research to assess the risks and conflicts, and the human and social response patterns to detect and predict cascading effects and tipping points, and to identify conditions for cooperation.
ThemisPalpanas Show AbstractTapping into the Real Time Knowledge Mine 527 0 26-04-2010 09:33:58
Up to now organizations have followed the paradigm of "gather data first, and analyze later". However, this paradigm falls short of the contemporary challenges, which call for real-time reactions to changes in the operation environments, in what is becoming a new generation of knowledge mining.
ChristenMarkus Show AbstractMoral Sensors: grasping normative shifts that underlie socio-economic crises 517 0 25-04-2010 21:41:23
Understanding the emergence of large-scale socio-economic crises requires a deeper comprehension on how moral issues (norms, rules, effects of moral leadership) shape and influence societal dynamics. The Moral Sensors project intends to enhance our knowledge on the causal role of norms in societal organization by integrating individualized approaches (e.g. moral psychology, experimental ethics)with "normative patterns recognition" based on data gained large-scale ICT systems and modeling.
PanosArgyrakis Show AbstractA Distributed Center for Risk Analysis And Forecasting 485 0 15-01-2010 18:06:12
The aim of this proposal is the establishment of an ICT Infrastructure in the form of a distributed center on top of the existing European and National Grid Infrastructures along with the emerging Cloud Infrastructures, focusing on the needs of the European research community dealing with risk analysis and crisis forecasting.
AndreaBassi Show AbstractIntegrated national development planning models to support policy formulation and evaluation 428 0 15-01-2010 10:57:46
National development planning currently uses a variety of models, all disconnected from each other and maintained by different departments. Conventional methodologies are static and heavily relying on history, missing on the dynamics of today's world. Integrated, dynamic models are needed to better inform policy making, with the aim of identifying structural components of the systems (social, economic and environmental) that would create synergies and/or bottlenecks to longer-term development.
DavidSumpter Show AbstractUnderstanding vs Forecasting 620 9 05-01-2010 08:27:24
Some comments on the objectives of this challenge aimed at provoking some debate.
StefanoBalietti Show AbstractThe Need of Regulations for Internet Data Management 522 0 04-01-2010 12:54:04
The normative gap between major companies' plans and current regulations covering Internet data management issues is creating a dangerous situation for millions of daily users of the net. The awareness of the risk is the first step towards concrete actions to be taken to return full control over their data the users.
SatoAkihiro Show AbstractRelationship between Synchronous Activities and Crisis in Socio-Economic Systems 586 0 19-12-2009 16:48:17
We can observe synchrony in our society. However we usually consider almost all of them as just coincidences. I think that a crisis in socio-economic systems happens triggered by some synchronous activities of individuals. In this contribution we attempt to observe several financial crises and to clarify the relationship between synchronous activities and such crises. From holistic point of view we observe quotation activities and rate fluctuations in the foreign exchange market.

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